MORTALITY RATE, POPULATION GROWTH RATE AND AGING POPULATION IN NIGERIA: THE MODERATING EFFECT OF FERTILITY

Abstract

Population ageing is a new demographic concern that is influenced by changes in birth and death rates and population growth through the years. Although greater declines in mortality rates will tend to increase longevity, fluctuations in fertility and population growth rates can also affect the speed of population ageing. This research examines the association between mortality rate, population growth and ageing in Nigeria and moderating variable is fertility rate. Secondary data were collected from NBS and from the World Bank Development Indicators database for the duration of the study. To assess the relationships among the variables, multiple linear regression analysis was done in EViews 12 software. The results have shown that when taking into consideration fertility, overall population growth has a positive and statistically significant impact on the issue of ageing. For child mortality there was an inverse relationship with age and for fertility, the relationship was positive. The study suggests that the challenges of population ageing in Nigeria can be met by improvement of social welfare systems for elderly citizens, an increased availability of quality health services to elderly people and fortification of measures that can lower the mortality rate of children and young people.